It’s Getting Hot in Here — The Forecast on Global Warming

Camping is pretty high on our list of summer-fun activities. There’s nothing like slowing down and taking some time to enjoy nature. Of course, lake swimming, canoeing, hiking, roasting, toasting and star gazing aren’t quite the same in cold, rainy weather; but, this summer that was practically a non-issue. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about the wonderful weather we had this summer—unless you ran into a farmer … or forest fire fighter … or pretty much anyone in drought-stricken California.

Could the wonderful weather be an indication of things to come? If predications made by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) are accurate, then yes. CAT is a scientific analysis created by four research organizations who track climate actions and the global efforts to keep the earth’s warming below a 2°C increase from pre-industrial levels. October 1, 2015, was the informal deadline for countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), or climate action plans, to the United Nations in preparation of December’s climate conference in Paris (known as COP21/CMP11); and CAT wasted no time in it’s analysis and assessment of the submissions. CAT estimates that the intended contributions would bring warming targets down to 2.7°C. While this is the first time since CAT’s inception in 2009 that estimates have dipped below 3°C and an improvement over last December’s pledges in Lima, it still falls short of the 2°C target. Of the INDCs that CAT analysed, few countries were found sufficient, and only one (Bhutan) is rated “role model.” As with many of the submitting governments, Canada is currently rated “inadequate.” — you can read it’s full rating assessment here. So, what, exactly, does this mean for the world?

According to NASA’s site on Global Climate Change, the ramifications of altering Earth’s natural greenhouse are hard to predict, but some outcomes appear likely:

1. Overall, global temperatures will rise. All 10 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the last 12, despite a solar output decline in the 2000s. Canadians may appreciate a milder winter, but other members of the global community will not look forward to enduring warmer temperatures.
2. As temperatures rise, they will most likely cause an increase in evaporation and precipitation on average, but the outcomes will vary across regions with some experiencing a wetter climate and others a dryer climate.
3. With increased greenhouse effect will come an increase in sea level thanks to temperature expanding existing water and melting land ice. As a maritime nation, 8 of our 10 provinces and all three territories border ocean waters, many of Canada’s regions will be affected by changing ocean environments.
4. The makeup of natural plant communities will be affected. Some plant life and crops may be inclined to grow more robustly and become more efficient at using water, but changes in climate patterns may alter the atmosphere where certain crops thrive.
5. Extreme Weather Conditions will proliferate. Since 1950, high temperature related events such as drought, wildfire, and flooding have increased in the United States as low temperature related events such as extreme cold and snowstorms have decreased. Likewise, Canada has experienced its fair share of flooding (southern Manitoba and Calgary) and forest fires (NWT and British Columbia).

NASA also points out an overwhelming scientific consensus that over the past century, climate-warming trends are likely the result of human activities, with many leading scientific organizations supporting this claim (click here to see the list), and even making public statements of endorsement. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is made up of 1,300 independent scientific experts from all over the world and they have resolved that there is a more than 90% probability that over the last 250 years, human activity has warmed the planet. So, while the international community tries to come to an agreement on how they can use policy to lesson the impact humans have on global warming, it’s time to consider our options as individuals.

Despite causing a lot of climate changes already, and setting in motion changes in the future, we may still be able to avoid, or at least reduce, some of the more severe effects. If you need some ideas on where to start, don’t forget about some of our past articles on topics like biodegradable coffee pods, alterative energy sources, and, of course, LED lighting. Behaviour changes such as recycling and choosing fuel efficient cars are a start and provide an excellent example to other individuals; however, they alone won’t be enough to tackle the entire complexity of climate change. To influence change, we must consider a coordinated response at both a global and local level. It’s time to start asking questions. Does public transportation need upgrading? Is city planning done with sustainability in mind? Where can energy efficiency improvements be made?

We need to get excited, make a plan, and simplify. Just like we do with our camping trips.